This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing Leadera’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
Leadera | training | published before 2020 | 127 | 81 |
Leadera | validation | published 2020 | 7 | 0 |
Leadera | test | published after 2020 | 3 | 0 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
Leadera | Asmodee | 32.3% | 2.5% | 13.18 |
Leadera | Pegasus Spiele | 15.7% | 2.1% | 7.34 |
Leadera | ZMan Games | 9.4% | 1.4% | 6.69 |
Leadera | Cooperative Game | 37.8% | 6.0% | 6.26 |
Leadera | Collectible Components | 8.7% | 1.7% | 4.98 |
Leadera | Variable Player Powers | 51.2% | 11.8% | 4.33 |
Leadera | Map Continental National Scale | 7.1% | 1.9% | 3.67 |
Leadera | Take That | 18.1% | 5.1% | 3.57 |
Leadera | Fantasy | 38.6% | 11.8% | 3.28 |
Leadera | Hand Management | 51.2% | 20.0% | 2.56 |
Leadera | Deduction Game | 11.8% | 5.1% | 2.32 |
Leadera | Realtime Game | 7.9% | 3.4% | 2.28 |
Leadera | Word Game | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.74 |
Leadera | Card Game | 48.0% | 29.4% | 1.63 |
Leadera | Movement Points | 0.8% | 2.3% | 0.34 |
Leadera | Space Exploration | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.00 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.975 | yes |
2 | 2019 | 285774 | Marvel Champions: The Card Game | 0.931 | yes |
3 | 2014 | 155068 | Arcadia Quest | 0.894 | yes |
4 | 2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.877 | no |
5 | 2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.856 | yes |
6 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.852 | no |
7 | 2019 | 270971 | Era: Medieval Age | 0.837 | no |
8 | 2019 | 253344 | Cthulhu: Death May Die | 0.812 | yes |
9 | 2016 | 205359 | Star Wars: Destiny | 0.804 | yes |
10 | 2018 | 260428 | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | 0.795 | yes |
11 | 2012 | 104162 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | 0.738 | no |
12 | 2007 | 31260 | Agricola | 0.703 | no |
13 | 2017 | 197070 | Massive Darkness | 0.660 | yes |
14 | 2018 | 230253 | Star Realms: Frontiers | 0.658 | no |
15 | 2019 | 229713 | War Room | 0.657 | no |
16 | 2016 | 195856 | Bloodborne: The Card Game | 0.649 | yes |
17 | 2012 | 124708 | Mice and Mystics | 0.637 | no |
18 | 2009 | 31563 | Middle-Earth Quest | 0.637 | no |
19 | 2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.632 | no |
20 | 2019 | 285984 | Last Bastion | 0.622 | no |
21 | 2016 | 176083 | Hit Z Road | 0.616 | no |
22 | 2009 | 39998 | Epic Trading Card Game | 0.598 | no |
23 | 2010 | 71721 | Space Hulk: Death Angel – The Card Game | 0.574 | no |
24 | 2017 | 220775 | Codenames: Disney – Family Edition | 0.574 | no |
25 | 2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.564 | no |
26 | 2018 | 209324 | The World of SMOG: Rise of Moloch | 0.554 | no |
27 | 2016 | 205158 | Codenames: Deep Undercover | 0.549 | no |
28 | 2015 | 178900 | Codenames | 0.539 | yes |
29 | 2011 | 94362 | Rune Age | 0.528 | no |
30 | 2013 | 133956 | Axis & Allies: WWI 1914 | 0.525 | no |
31 | 2018 | 218421 | Street Masters | 0.519 | no |
32 | 2016 | 200680 | Agricola (Revised Edition) | 0.518 | no |
33 | 2008 | 30549 | Pandemic | 0.517 | yes |
34 | 2016 | 191189 | Aeon's End | 0.514 | no |
35 | 2018 | 254591 | Heroes of Terrinoth | 0.509 | no |
36 | 2011 | 77423 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game | 0.499 | yes |
37 | 2019 | 248065 | Zombicide: Invader | 0.485 | no |
38 | 2014 | 156336 | Onirim (Second Edition) | 0.483 | no |
39 | 2015 | 170216 | Blood Rage | 0.464 | no |
40 | 2016 | 203719 | Krosmaster Arena 2.0 | 0.450 | no |
41 | 2016 | 169786 | Scythe | 0.448 | no |
42 | 2018 | 257499 | Arkham Horror (Third Edition) | 0.441 | yes |
43 | 2019 | 271896 | Star Wars: Outer Rim | 0.434 | no |
44 | 2018 | 231327 | The Grizzled: Armistice Edition | 0.428 | no |
45 | 2011 | 83330 | Mansions of Madness | 0.426 | no |
46 | 2011 | 100423 | Elder Sign | 0.413 | no |
47 | 2018 | 199792 | Everdell | 0.409 | yes |
48 | 2016 | 192945 | Coal Baron: The Great Card Game | 0.399 | no |
49 | 2017 | 230059 | Crossfire | 0.396 | no |
50 | 2015 | 146508 | T.I.M.E Stories | 0.393 | no |
51 | 2014 | 154203 | Imperial Settlers | 0.393 | no |
52 | 2017 | 221107 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | 0.393 | yes |
53 | 2010 | 71836 | Onirim | 0.390 | no |
54 | 2014 | 148228 | Splendor | 0.388 | no |
55 | 2017 | 184151 | Legend of the Five Rings: The Card Game | 0.383 | no |
56 | 2016 | 204305 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | 0.383 | no |
57 | 2018 | 266121 | Unlock!: Heroic Adventures | 0.381 | no |
58 | 2008 | 37046 | Ghost Stories | 0.377 | no |
59 | 2012 | 113924 | Zombicide | 0.370 | yes |
60 | 2019 | 280789 | Pandemic: Rapid Response | 0.360 | yes |
61 | 2017 | 223931 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Carlton House & Queen's Park | 0.359 | no |
62 | 2009 | 43868 | The Adventurers: The Temple of Chac | 0.350 | no |
63 | 2018 | 224710 | Zombicide: Green Horde | 0.349 | yes |
64 | 2019 | 269385 | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth | 0.348 | yes |
65 | 2015 | 182631 | Star Realms: Colony Wars | 0.348 | no |
66 | 2017 | 162886 | Spirit Island | 0.344 | yes |
67 | 2019 | 294612 | Unlock!: Epic Adventures | 0.336 | no |
68 | 2001 | 1262 | Axis & Allies: Pacific | 0.335 | no |
69 | 2018 | 244711 | Newton | 0.330 | no |
70 | 2011 | 42776 | Gears of War: The Board Game | 0.330 | yes |
71 | 2017 | 195539 | The Godfather: Corleone's Empire | 0.319 | no |
72 | 2019 | 258411 | Unlock!: Exotic Adventures – Expedition: Challenger | 0.315 | no |
73 | 2016 | 156858 | Black Orchestra | 0.310 | no |
74 | 2016 | 193953 | Mistfall: Heart of the Mists | 0.306 | no |
75 | 2017 | 188920 | This War of Mine: The Board Game | 0.305 | no |
76 | 2019 | 279613 | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures | 0.296 | no |
77 | 2015 | 181304 | Mysterium | 0.295 | no |
78 | 2006 | 28025 | Wicked Witches Way | 0.295 | no |
79 | 2016 | 198994 | Hero Realms | 0.290 | yes |
80 | 1959 | 7688 | Memory | 0.289 | no |
81 | 2017 | 226522 | Exit: The Game – Dead Man on the Orient Express | 0.280 | no |
82 | 2017 | 174430 | Gloomhaven | 0.278 | yes |
83 | 2012 | 129904 | Shadows over Camelot: The Card Game | 0.277 | no |
84 | 2008 | 33107 | Senji | 0.272 | no |
85 | 2019 | 189453 | Victorian Masterminds | 0.272 | no |
86 | 1997 | 1150 | Lionheart | 0.263 | no |
87 | 2004 | 9209 | Ticket to Ride | 0.262 | no |
88 | 2019 | 265736 | Tiny Towns | 0.261 | no |
89 | 2014 | 150376 | Dead of Winter: A Crossroads Game | 0.260 | no |
90 | 2017 | 197376 | Charterstone | 0.259 | no |
91 | 2016 | 160010 | Conan | 0.257 | no |
92 | 2017 | 215312 | Stop Thief! | 0.256 | no |
93 | 2012 | 122522 | Smash Up | 0.252 | yes |
94 | 2013 | 127024 | Room 25 | 0.249 | no |
95 | 2013 | 146021 | Eldritch Horror | 0.246 | yes |
96 | 2018 | 259970 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Two-Player Limited Edition Starter | 0.244 | no |
97 | 2005 | 18723 | Aye, Dark Overlord! The Red Box | 0.243 | no |
98 | 2015 | 175621 | Epic Card Game | 0.240 | yes |
99 | 2018 | 245654 | Railroad Ink: Deep Blue Edition | 0.239 | no |
100 | 2019 | 283317 | The 7th Continent: Classic Edition | 0.237 | no |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.93 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.77 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think Leadera is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.877 | no |
2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.852 | no |
2019 | 270971 | Era: Medieval Age | 0.837 | no |
2012 | 104162 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | 0.738 | no |
2007 | 31260 | Agricola | 0.703 | no |
What games does the model think Leadera is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2019 | 198517 | Consumption: Food and Choices | 0.000 | yes |
2014 | 159375 | Prime Climb | 0.001 | yes |
2017 | 197443 | Fugitive | 0.001 | yes |
2011 | 91536 | Quarriors! | 0.001 | yes |
2013 | 133473 | Sushi Go! | 0.001 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | Axis & Allies: WWI 1914 | Arcadia Quest | Codenames | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Massive Darkness | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | Marvel Champions: The Card Game |
2 | Mice and Mystics | Room 25 | Onirim (Second Edition) | Blood Rage | Star Wars: Destiny | Codenames: Disney – Family Edition | Star Realms: Frontiers | Tapestry |
3 | Zombicide | Eldritch Horror | Imperial Settlers | T.I.M.E Stories | Bloodborne: The Card Game | Crossfire | Rising Sun | Aftermath |
4 | Shadows over Camelot: The Card Game | The Little Prince: Make Me a Planet | Splendor | Star Realms: Colony Wars | Hit Z Road | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | The World of SMOG: Rise of Moloch | Era: Medieval Age |
5 | Smash Up | Euphoria: Build a Better Dystopia | Dead of Winter: A Crossroads Game | Mysterium | Star Wars: Rebellion | Legend of the Five Rings: The Card Game | Street Masters | Cthulhu: Death May Die |
6 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | Glass Road | Five Tribes | Epic Card Game | Codenames: Deep Undercover | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Carlton House & Queen's Park | Heroes of Terrinoth | War Room |
7 | Il Vecchio | Smash Up: The Obligatory Cthulhu Set | Smash Up: Monster Smash | Viticulture Essential Edition | Agricola (Revised Edition) | Spirit Island | Arkham Horror (Third Edition) | Last Bastion |
8 | Urbion | Viticulture | Star Realms | Star Wars: X-Wing Miniatures Game – The Force Awakens Core Set | Aeon's End | The Godfather: Corleone's Empire | The Grizzled: Armistice Edition | Zombicide: Invader |
9 | Android: Netrunner | Smash Up: Awesome Level 9000 | Warhammer 40,000: Conquest | March of the Ants | Krosmaster Arena 2.0 | This War of Mine: The Board Game | Everdell | Star Wars: Outer Rim |
10 | Seasons | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | Colt Express | Sylvion | Scythe | Exit: The Game – Dead Man on the Orient Express | Unlock!: Heroic Adventures | Pandemic: Rapid Response |
11 | Love Letter | Cardline: Globetrotter | Pandemic: The Cure | Marvel Dice Masters: Age of Ultron | Coal Baron: The Great Card Game | Gloomhaven | Zombicide: Green Horde | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth |
12 | Escape: The Curse of the Temple | Dungeon Roll | Marvel Dice Masters: Avengers vs. X-Men | Smash Up: Munchkin | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | Charterstone | Newton | Unlock!: Epic Adventures |
13 | Rex: Final Days of an Empire | Rory's Story Cubes: Prehistoria | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | XCOM: The Board Game | Black Orchestra | Stop Thief! | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Two-Player Limited Edition Starter | Unlock!: Exotic Adventures – Expedition: Challenger |
14 | Zug um Zug: Deutschland | The Doom That Came to Atlantic City | Timeline: Americana | Epic PVP: Fantasy | Mistfall: Heart of the Mists | Pandemic: Rising Tide | Railroad Ink: Deep Blue Edition | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures |
15 | Cardline: Animals | Timeline: Music & Cinema | Smash Up: Science Fiction Double Feature | Runebound (Third Edition) | Hero Realms | Dragonfire | A Song of Ice & Fire: Tabletop Miniatures Game – Stark vs Lannister Starter Set | Victorian Masterminds |
16 | Legends of Andor | Munchkin Pathfinder | Three Kingdoms Redux | Zombicide: Black Plague | Conan | Magic Maze | KeyForge: Call of the Archons | Tiny Towns |
17 | Timeline: General Interest | Berserk: Knights and Villains | Camel Up | RallyRas | Harry Potter: Hogwarts Battle | Smash Up: What Were We Thinking? | Narcos: The Board Game | The 7th Continent: Classic Edition |
18 | Timeline | The Builders: Middle Ages | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Skull & Shackles – Base Set | Elysium | Smash Up: Cease and Desist | Too Many Bones | Fireball Island: The Curse of Vul-Kar | God of War: The Card Game |
19 | Krosmaster: Arena | BattleCON: Devastation of Indines | Timeline: Sports et Loisirs | Zombicide Season 3: Rue Morgue | Pandemic: Reign of Cthulhu | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Vanishing from Hyde Park | Unlock!: Secret Adventures – Tombstone Express | KeyForge: Age of Ascension |
20 | Star Wars: The Card Game | Munchkin Legends | Samurai Spirit | Timeline: Star Wars | Dead of Winter: The Long Night | Gaia Project | Jurassic Park: Danger! | Cartographers |
21 | Kemet | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Rise of the Runelords – Base Set | Timeline: American History | Between Two Cities | When I Dream | Dungeon Time | Architects of the West Kingdom | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon |
22 | Coup | BANG! The Dice Game | Dragon Run | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Mummy's Mask – Base Set | Paku Paku | The City of Kings | Call to Adventure |
23 | Express 01 | Zombicide Season 2: Prison Outbreak | VivaJava: The Coffee Game: The Dice Game | Timeline: Québec | Codenames: Pictures | Arcadia Quest: Inferno | Harry Potter: A Year at Hogwarts | The Only Word: the Party Word Game |
24 | Clash of Cultures | Legacy: The Testament of Duke de Crecy | Abracada...What? | Grimslingers | Citadels | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Squeek & Sausage | Choose Your Own Adventure: House of Danger | Harry Potter: Hogwarts Battle – Defence Against the Dark Arts |
25 | Axis & Allies 1941 | Petits meurtres & faits divers: au tribunal | Fields of Arle | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Wrath of the Righteous – Base Set | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | Star Wars: Destiny – Two-Player Game | Forsaken Forest | Harry Potter: Death Eaters Rising |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
Leadera | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.959 |
Leadera | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.856 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 314040 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 0 | 0.496 | yes |
2020 | 298047 | Marvel United | 0.397 | yes |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.334 | yes |
2020 | 302425 | Unlock!: Mythic Adventures | 0.295 | no |
2020 | 304285 | Infinity Gauntlet: A Love Letter Game | 0.295 | no |
2020 | 327913 | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures – Arsène Lupin und der große weiße Diamant | 0.284 | no |
2020 | 312267 | Star Wars: Unlock! | 0.207 | no |
2020 | 257001 | Munchkin Dungeon | 0.200 | no |
2020 | 302723 | Forgotten Waters | 0.186 | no |
2020 | 271524 | TIME Stories Revolution: A Midsummer Night | 0.186 | no |
2020 | 316377 | 7 Wonders (Second Edition) | 0.182 | no |
2020 | 301880 | Raiders of Scythia | 0.173 | no |
2020 | 296345 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Baker Street Irregulars | 0.160 | no |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.149 | no |
2020 | 287742 | TIME Stories Revolution: The Hadal Project | 0.141 | no |
2020 | 312804 | Pendulum | 0.138 | no |
2020 | 315060 | Unmatched: Buffy the Vampire Slayer | 0.110 | no |
2020 | 316412 | The LOOP | 0.110 | no |
2020 | 316750 | The Princess Bride Adventure Book Game | 0.108 | no |
2020 | 262274 | D6: Dungeons, Dudes, Dames, Danger, Dice and Dragons! | 0.107 | no |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.101 | no |
2020 | 256999 | Project: ELITE | 0.099 | no |
2020 | 318983 | Faiyum | 0.083 | no |
2020 | 318977 | MicroMacro: Crime City | 0.082 | yes |
2020 | 300001 | Renature | 0.078 | no |
2020 | 294484 | Unmatched: Cobble & Fog | 0.077 | no |
2020 | 262208 | Dungeon Drop | 0.077 | no |
2020 | 284777 | Unmatched: Jurassic Park – InGen vs Raptors | 0.071 | no |
2020 | 332230 | Unlock!: Heroic Adventures – Insert Coin | 0.070 | no |
2020 | 332229 | Unlock!: Heroic Adventures – Hinunter in den Kaninchenbau | 0.070 | no |
2020 | 341008 | Unlock!: Heroic Adventures – Sherlock Holmes: Der scharlachrote Faden | 0.070 | no |
2020 | 309113 | Ticket to Ride: Amsterdam | 0.068 | no |
2020 | 299800 | Escape Tales: Children of Wyrmwoods | 0.066 | no |
2020 | 301919 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – North America | 0.064 | yes |
2020 | 299047 | Disney Villainous: Perfectly Wretched | 0.062 | no |
2020 | 304420 | Bonfire | 0.060 | no |
2020 | 313698 | Monster Expedition | 0.059 | no |
2020 | 331952 | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures – Die Noside-Show | 0.055 | no |
2020 | 331953 | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures – Verloren im Zeitstrudel! | 0.055 | no |
2020 | 293531 | Detective: A Modern Crime Board Game – Season One | 0.054 | no |
2020 | 295687 | Trust Me, I'm a Doctor | 0.053 | no |
2020 | 303669 | Magic Rabbit | 0.049 | no |
2020 | 233262 | Tidal Blades: Heroes of the Reef | 0.049 | no |
2020 | 288169 | The Fox in the Forest Duet | 0.048 | no |
2020 | 296605 | Adventure of D (Second Edition) | 0.047 | no |
2020 | 314893 | Fox Matters | 0.047 | no |
2020 | 332782 | Cantaloop: Prequel | 0.046 | no |
2020 | 325635 | Unmatched: Little Red Riding Hood vs. Beowulf | 0.044 | no |
2020 | 284217 | Rush M.D. | 0.043 | no |
2020 | 257145 | Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Adventures: City Fall | 0.042 | no |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.936 | no |
2021 | 273330 | Bloodborne: The Board Game | 0.851 | no |
2021 | 340466 | Unfathomable | 0.787 | no |
2021 | 336382 | Marvel United: X-Men | 0.583 | no |
2021 | 350636 | Unlock!: Game Adventures | 0.434 | no |
2021 | 256680 | Return to Dark Tower | 0.411 | no |
2021 | 329465 | Red Rising | 0.385 | yes |
2021 | 328908 | The Initiative | 0.357 | no |
2021 | 299255 | Vienna Connection | 0.349 | no |
2021 | 287608 | Epic Card Game: Duels | 0.328 | no |
2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.305 | no |
2021 | 338834 | MicroMacro: Crime City – Full House | 0.295 | yes |
2022 | 266064 | Trudvang Legends | 0.245 | no |
2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.231 | no |
2022 | 315610 | Massive Darkness 2: Hellscape | 0.192 | no |
2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.170 | no |
2021 | 340909 | Gloomholdin' | 0.163 | no |
2021 | 315937 | X-Men: Mutant Insurrection | 0.163 | no |
2021 | 339484 | Savannah Park | 0.159 | no |
2023 | 351817 | Marvel Zombies: A Zombicide Game | 0.157 | no |
2021 | 285967 | Ankh: Gods of Egypt | 0.142 | no |
2021 | 344277 | Corrosion | 0.132 | no |
2022 | 273814 | Deliverance | 0.126 | no |
2021 | 224793 | Gascony's Legacy | 0.125 | no |
2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.118 | no |
2022 | 251661 | Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood | 0.117 | no |
2021 | 332944 | Sobek: 2 Players | 0.117 | no |
2021 | 329670 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – Europe | 0.116 | no |
2021 | 291859 | Riftforce | 0.106 | no |
2021 | 280984 | Ruins: Death Binder | 0.105 | no |
2022 | 311988 | Frostpunk: The Board Game | 0.097 | no |
2021 | 335541 | We Care: a Grizzled Game | 0.097 | no |
2021 | 304783 | Hadrian's Wall | 0.097 | no |
2022 | 303731 | Primal: The Awakening | 0.085 | no |
2021 | 331635 | Kameloot | 0.085 | no |
2022 | 342444 | Black Rose Wars: Rebirth | 0.083 | no |
2021 | 332800 | Summoner Wars (Second Edition) | 0.079 | no |
2022 | 356033 | Libertalia: Winds of Galecrest | 0.078 | no |
2021 | 326804 | Rorschach | 0.077 | no |
2021 | 339263 | Summoner Wars (Second Edition): Starter Set | 0.074 | no |
2021 | 299566 | Batman: The Animated Series Adventures – Shadow of the Bat | 0.071 | no |
2022 | 338468 | Paperback Adventures | 0.070 | no |
2021 | 290236 | Canvas | 0.067 | no |
2022 | 277025 | Vampire: The Masquerade – Chapters | 0.067 | no |
2022 | 335764 | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume Two | 0.065 | no |
2021 | 286751 | Zombicide: 2nd Edition | 0.065 | no |
2021 | 306202 | Philosophia: Floating World | 0.061 | no |
2021 | 319899 | Decktective: Nightmare in the Mirror | 0.060 | no |
2021 | 347137 | Chronicles of Avel | 0.060 | no |
2022 | 340325 | Vagrantsong | 0.059 | no |
2021 | 260789 | Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood of Venice | 0.059 | no |
2021 | 302098 | Chronicles of Crime: 1900 | 0.058 | no |
2021 | 324957 | The Snallygaster Situation: Kids on Bikes Board Game | 0.054 | no |
2021 | 298102 | Roll Camera!: The Filmmaking Board Game | 0.053 | no |
2021 | 305682 | Rolling Realms | 0.052 | no |
2021 | 339906 | The Hunger | 0.049 | no |
2022 | 293941 | Mage Noir | 0.049 | no |
2021 | 329962 | Cantaloop: Book 2 – A Hack of a Plan | 0.048 | no |
2022 | 252315 | The Everrain | 0.047 | no |
2021 | 282700 | LOOP: Life of Ordinary People | 0.046 | no |
2021 | 333516 | Exit: The Game + Puzzle – Nightfall Manor | 0.045 | no |
2022 | 298512 | Soulgivers | 0.045 | no |
2021 | 293835 | Oltréé | 0.045 | no |
2021 | 342942 | Ark Nova | 0.044 | no |
2021 | 262201 | Sword & Sorcery: Ancient Chronicles | 0.044 | no |
2021 | 288385 | Masters of the Night | 0.041 | no |
2021 | 302312 | Chronicles of Crime: 2400 | 0.041 | no |
2022 | 333255 | Keep the Heroes Out! | 0.040 | no |
2021 | 261246 | Tiny Ninjas Heroes | 0.040 | no |
2022 | 352764 | Disney Villainous: Bigger and Badder | 0.039 | no |
2023 | 286063 | The 7th Citadel | 0.039 | no |
2021 | 331050 | Disney Villainous: Despicable Plots | 0.039 | no |
2021 | 287711 | The Path of the Adventurers | 0.039 | no |
2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.038 | no |
2022 | 322524 | Bardsung | 0.037 | no |
2021 | 343562 | Horrified: American Monsters | 0.036 | no |
2021 | 310641 | Ostium | 0.035 | no |
2021 | 279087 | Zerywia | 0.034 | no |
2021 | 247417 | Solomon Kane | 0.034 | no |
2021 | 322708 | Descent: Legends of the Dark | 0.034 | no |
2021 | 326494 | The Adventures of Robin Hood | 0.033 | no |
2021 | 339905 | Love Letter: Princess Princess Ever After | 0.031 | no |
2021 | 249277 | Brazil: Imperial | 0.031 | no |
2022 | 305096 | Endless Winter: Paleoamericans | 0.031 | no |
2021 | 331549 | MiniQuest Adventures | 0.031 | no |
2021 | 306881 | Railroad Ink Challenge: Lush Green Edition | 0.030 | no |
2021 | 306882 | Railroad Ink Challenge: Shining Yellow Edition | 0.030 | no |
2022 | 347703 | First Rat | 0.030 | no |
2021 | 340288 | Kids Chronicles: Quest for the Moon Stones | 0.030 | no |
2021 | 332015 | Fast & Furious: Highway Heist | 0.030 | no |
2021 | 339789 | Welcome to the Moon | 0.030 | no |
2021 | 330084 | Unlock!: Legendary Adventures | 0.030 | no |
2021 | 341546 | Amelia's Secret | 0.030 | no |
2021 | 314491 | Meadow | 0.029 | no |
2021 | 315221 | Vampire: The Masquerade – Rivals Expandable Card Game | 0.029 | no |
2021 | 307305 | Bullet♥︎ | 0.029 | no |
2021 | 332181 | IQ Files: Pecados | 0.029 | no |
2021 | 343526 | G.I. JOE Deck-Building Game | 0.029 | no |
2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.028 | no |
2021 | 322124 | Power Rangers: Deck-Building Game | 0.028 | no |